Housing Cost Fact Base & Affordability Model Project Overview

Our goal is to build a foundation for understanding housing costs and opportunities to improve affordability in Northern Colorado.

Context

The lack of affordable housing is a crisis in our cities, county, state, and country.
Through it's Regional Housing Initiative, the NoCo Foundation is working to coordinate our response to this crisis. Its "Cost Group" is working to build a model which will show cost build up and where there is potential for reduction.
We seeking input from all stakeholders and intend to be highly collaborative and transparent.

Project details

What: Build a robust data set and modeling tool to calculate the cost of new-build housing in NOCO.

Why: To provide a shared understanding of housing cost drivers with the ability to quantify the effect of potential changes.

Who: Led by Erik Mikysa and sponsored by Brooke Cunningham of the NoCo Foundation, with input from stakeholders including developers, architects, builders, trades, lenders, water districts, municipalities, nonprofits, and more.

When: Kickoff in 2025, build in 2026. In 2026, the model will be reviewed and developed in NoCo Foundation Regional Housing Initiative "Cost Group" workshops and in FC BS+B meetings as part of the Affordability Series.

Where: Initial focus on communities such as Fort Collins, Loveland, Windsor, Timnath, and Wellington, with later expansion to additional Northern Colorado communities and comparison with appropriate benchmark towns and cities.

How: By following the draft plan below, but of course deviating where it makes sense.

Phase Overview

Phase 0 — Purpose & How We Work Together

Gets the right people, purpose, and ground rules in place before we build the model.

Focus:

Clarify the purpose: which questions the model must answer, and who it is for.
Decide who (stakeholder groups, not individuals) should be on the core team and in an advisory group.
Draft a potential timeline for project progression through 2026.

Key outputs:

Short written summary (2–4 pages) that explains the purpose, what is included, who it is for, and basic limits.
Simple picture or chart that shows who does what and who decides what.

Phase 1 — Define the Starting Point

Defines the starting case that anchors the first version of the model.

Focus:

Choose a typical starting home example, e.g., a 1,600 ft² single-family home in Fort Collins.
Document starting assumptions, such as lot type, buyer type, loan terms, features, etc.
Extend invitations to individuals serve on advisory board by providing insight and data.

Key outputs:

Starting point definition document with all major assumptions in one place.
One-page summary for reuse in slide decks, briefs, and other pages on this site.

Phase 2 — Clear Cost Categories & Data Setup

Builds a clear, organized list of all costs and shows where every number comes from.

Focus:

Create a clear set of cost categories and sub-categories such as:
- Land & entitlement
- Infrastructure & site work
- Structure & envelope
- Mechanical, electrical, plumbing (MEP)
- Interior & exterior finishes
- Soft costs (design, permits, fees, overhead)
- Financing (construction and permanent)
- Operations, maintenance, and reserves
Decide how detailed the model should be: where you need detailed line items and where a simple total is enough.
Brainstorm potential data sources, e.g., past project data, public data sets, expert estimates, etc.
Spot missing information and where expert judgment or temporary estimates will be required.

Key outputs:

Simple cost category table to serve as the “backbone” of the model.
Easy-to-read chart showing where each number comes from, how often it is updated, and who is responsible.

Phase 3 — Build the Cost Model

Turns the cost categories and starting assumptions into a working cost model.

Focus:

Create a model that adds up costs step by step, moving from parts and tasks to:
- Total project cost
- Buyer cash requirements at key milestones
- Monthly out-of-pocket costs (mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities, reserves)
Add simple settings or inputs which enable testing of different assumptions and inputs.
Document assumptions inside the model so they are easy to see, change, time-stamp, and link to sources.

Key outputs:

Working starting model that can be walked through in a group setting.
List of major assumptions linked to the model, with dates and sources for key inputs.

Phase 4 — Build Scenarios & Simple Summaries

Uses the model to create “what if” examples and turn them into simple tools and summaries people can understand.

Focus:

Create a small set of clear “what if” examples, such as:
- Baseline vs high-performance envelope and systems
- Different land and lot contexts (infill vs greenfield, different jurisdictions)
- Different policy and financing environments (incentives, fee structures, interest rates)
Create clear summaries for each audience:
- Builders and trades: detailed cost breakdowns and changes they can control
- Lenders and finance partners: cash flow, risk, and payment timelines
- Policy-makers and community: affordability impacts, key cost drivers, realistic changes to consider
Make simple visual summaries: charts, comparisons, tables, and short summaries.

Key outputs:

Scenario library capturing the most useful “what if” comparisons.
Slides, graphics, and one-page summaries that are ready to share.

Phase 5 — Test It, Improve It, and Expand It

Tests the model, improves it, and sets it up as an ongoing tool.

Focus:

Use the model on real projects and policy questions to complement existing models and test.
Refine refine functionality, data, and usability based on stakeholder input.
WIth stakeholders determine path forward with the model.

Key outputs:

Cost model clearly marked as version 1.0, with plain-language notes that explain how it works.
Simple plan for future versions (v1.x and v2.0+), including better data and possible tool changes.