Fort Collins Building Science + Beer · June 25, 2026

Tonight's two sessions

Performance · P6

The Four Control Layers

Water, air, vapor, thermal · led by Andrew Dillenbeck

Affordability · A6

Materials & Labor

Where construction dollars get spent · led by Erik Mikysa

Use the ← → arrow keys or the buttons. Press F for fullscreen.

Tonight's run of show

  1. Welcome grab a beer, settle in (~7:00)
  2. Quick introductions around the room
  3. Announcements Joe Medosch's training + upcoming events
  4. Performance: The Four Control Layers Andrew Dillenbeck
  5. Affordability: Materials & Labor led by Erik ⚽ US match at 8 - slip out anytime

Introductions

Who are you, and what brought you out tonight?

Name · what you do · what you are hoping to take away

Special announcement

measureQuick HVAC Commissioning Training

Joe Medosch is teaching a one-day, hands-on course in Denver, Thursday July 23.

~$100
net cost: $1,600 tuition, minus up to $1,500 back through Power Ahead Colorado (one attendee per company)
free gear
you keep a complete measureQuick JB probe kit plus a one-year Premier membership

8:00am to 4:30pm, Johnstone Supply (Denver). Open to CO HVAC contractors statewide, limited to 15 companies. Reserve a seat at upskillhvac.com, and register at coloradocontractorhub.org to claim the reimbursement.

Referenceshttps://upskillhvac.com/event/measurequick-101-hvac-commissioning-training-denver/
https://coloradocontractorhub.org
Performance Session · P6

The Four Control Layers

Water, air, vapor, thermal

Led by Andrew Dillenbeck

Affordability Session · A6

Materials & Labor

Where construction dollars actually get spent

Led by Erik Mikysa

It is not the materials

The myth

"We just need cheaper materials."

The reality

Labor hours, sequencing, coordination, and rework drive cost more than material unit prices.

ReferencesA6 session framing · https://www.fcbsb.org/affordability/A6.html

Is labor half the cost? Nobody cleanly knows.

ReferencesNAHB Cost of Constructing a Home 2024 · https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics-plus/special-studies/special-studies-pages/cost-of-constructing-a-home-in-2024
Terner Center, Hard Costs of Construction (2020) · https://ternercenter.berkeley.edu/hard-construction-costs-apartments-california

Cars got cheaper. Houses did not.

+290%
US economy-wide labor productivity, 1950 to 2020
below 1950
construction productivity, now below where it was in 1950

Even over just the last two decades, manufacturing productivity more than doubled (+103%) while construction crept up only +22%. Manufacturing automated labor out; construction stayed fragmented, on-site, and custom.

ReferencesGoolsbee & Syverson, "The Strange and Awful Path of Productivity in the U.S. Construction Sector," NBER 2023 (w30845) · https://www.nber.org/papers/w30845
McKinsey Global Institute 2017 · https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/operations/our-insights/reinventing-construction-through-a-productivity-revolution

And labor gets scarcer every year

81%
of firms say lack of labor is their top challenge
349-439k
extra workers needed per year, on top of normal hiring
~41%
of the workforce projected to retire by 2031
ReferencesFreddie Mac / AGC 2021, via A6 · https://www.fcbsb.org/affordability/A6.html
Associated Builders & Contractors · https://www.abc.org/News-Media/News-Releases/abc-construction-industry-must-attract-439000-workers-in-2025
NCCER · https://www.nccer.org/newsroom/how-apprenticeships-empower-adult-learners-and-bridge-the-construction-workforce-gap/

The counter-current: the "Toolbelt Generation"

+23%
construction-trades program enrollment in 2023
+16%
vocational-focused community college enrollment, highest since 2018

Drivers: soaring college costs, strong trade wages, and hands-on work that is hard for AI to replace.

Open question: enough to offset the retirements, or a drop in the bucket?

ReferencesWSJ / National Student Clearinghouse 2024, via NPR · https://www.npr.org/2024/04/22/1245858737/gen-z-trade-vocational-schools-jobs-college

Where the cost actually moves

ReferencesA6 barriers · https://www.fcbsb.org/affordability/A6.html
Modular Building Institute · https://www.modular.org/industry-analysis/

Let's discuss

When someone says "we need cheaper materials," is that ever the real lever, or is it labor, rework, and coordination?

  1. Which material substitution looked cheap on paper but cost more after labor, waste, inspection, or callbacks?
  2. Which trade or constraint most often controls the schedule on local projects, and where does the cost show up first?
  3. What one change to local code, inspection, or contracting would cut labor hours without cutting durability?

The real question

If labor is the lever, what actually moves it in Northern Colorado: prefab and modular, training pipelines, fewer and standardized details, or design that simply needs less labor?

ReferencesNAHB Cost of Constructing a Home 2024 · nahb.org/.../cost-of-constructing-a-home-in-2024
Terner Center, Hard Costs of Construction 2020 · ternercenter.berkeley.edu/hard-construction-costs-apartments-california
Goolsbee & Syverson, NBER 2023 (w30845) · nber.org/papers/w30845 · McKinsey 2017 · mckinsey.com/.../reinventing-construction · Construction Physics · construction-physics.com/p/trends-in-us-construction-productivity
ABC · abc.org/.../attract-439000-workers-in-2025 · NCCER · nccer.org/newsroom
WSJ / National Student Clearinghouse 2024, via NPR · npr.org/2024/04/22/1245858737
Modular Building Institute · modular.org/industry-analysis · A6 · fcbsb.org/affordability/A6.html
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